捕获全球天然气市场价值.pdf

J U LY 2 0 1 4 O i l G a s P r a c t i c e Capturing value in global gas: Prepare now for an uncertain future There is huge uncertainty about how global gas markets will evolve, but the extent of the value at stake makes it imperative for liquefied natural gas suppliers and buyers to act now. Giorgio Bresciani, Unforeseen events have disrupted the gas market that value creation in the global gas industry in Dieuwert Inia, in the last eight years but paradoxically lent it 2030 could be anywhere between $310 billion and and Peter Lambert a degree of stability—for the time being, at least. $725 billion, compared with $340 billion in 2011. The shale-gas boom in the United States, rapidly This $415 billion difference in potential outcomes increasing Asian demand, and the European in a single year suggests very different prospects economic crisis have driven huge price discrepan- not only for the industry as a whole but also for cies among regional markets. The influence different participants, as the value gains will of these three disruptions is not likely to wane by no means be evenly spread. before the turn of the decade. But then what? Liquefied natural gas (LNG), while only account- Enormous value is at stake. Depending on how ing for 10 percent of the global gas market factors such as Asian demand, oil prices, or North currently, will be a key determinant of market American exports play out, our analysis sugges