地震预测模型.docVIP

地震预测模型 　　摘要：文章旨在研究地震预测问题，讨论了全球16个强震活动区的强震活动次数与其后一年我国强震发生与否的关系。首先，由模糊聚类和变量规格化的思想，结合前15年的数据求出全球16个区发生强震次数与中国后一年发生强震的相关系数矩阵，通过对前15年16个区发生强震次数加权求和，得到各地的影响值，取其中的最小值作为影响值的下限值，建立预测预测中国后一年是否发生强震模型；其次，从数据中筛选出云南地区每月最高震级组成固定时间间隔的地震序列，利用气象学预测中的均生函数方法生成一列相应的时间序列，经周期性外延、残差值逐步拟合得到对当地地震最大震级的预测模型。 　　关键词：地震预测；相关系数；加权和；均生函数；时间序列 　　中图分类号：P31文献标识码：A文章编号：1009-3044(2008)32-1252-05 　　The Model of Earthquake Prediction 　　GONG TANG Xiao-heng1, LIN Jian-ming2, SU Jing3, ZHOU Jie2 　　(1.School of Computer Science, Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;2.College of Mathematics, Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;3.School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China) 　　Abstract: This paper was mainly about the earthquake prediction on the basis of the relationship between the frequency of strong earthquakes in 16 seismically active zones all over the world and the probability of strong earthquakes which may happen in China the next year. Firstly, according to fuzzy clustering and variable normalizing, we obtained a relevant coefficient matrix about the relationship between the frequency of strong earthquakes in 16 seismically active zones all over the world and the probability of strong earthquakes which may happen in China the next year with data of the previous 15 years. Through weighted summation of the frequency of strong earthquakes in 16 seismically active zones all over the world during the previous 15 years, we obtained the “influencing value” of each zone and set the minimum value as the lower limit value, and then established the prediction model of strong earthquakes in China the next year. Secondly, we screened out the highest earthquake magnitudes each month in Yunnan to compose an earthquake sequence. Next we applied to mean generating function from Meteorological prediction to generate a time sequence. Thus we established the prediction model of the highest earthquake magnitudes in Yunnan by using cyclic extension and adjusted resi