Paul-McCulley-Zoltan-Pozsar-直升机撒钱-财政与货币协同政策的美妙之处.pdf

Helicopter Money: Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation By Paul McCulley, Chair, GIC Global Society of Fellows and Zoltan Pozsar, Visiting Scholar, GIC Global Society of Fellows January 7, 2013 HELICOPTER MONEY : OR HOW I STOPPED WORRYING AND LOVE FISCAL-MONETARY COOPERATION ABSTRACT During private deleveraging cycles monetary policy will largely be ineffective if it is aimed at stimulating private credit demand. What matters is not monetary stimulus per se, but whether monetary stimulus is paired with fiscal stimulus (otherwise known as helicopter money) and whether monetary policy is communicated in a way that helps the fiscal authority maintain stimulus for as long as private deleveraging continues. Fiscal dominance and central bank independence come in secular cycles and mirror secular private leveraging and deleveraging cycles, respectively. As long as there will be secular debt cycles, central bank independence will be a station, not a final destination. Paul McCulley is Chair of the Global Interdependence Center’s (GIC) Global Society of Fellows. Zoltan Pozsar is a Visiting Scholar at GIC. Paul McCulley thanks Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf for intellectual camaraderie. The authors wish to thank Stijn Claessens, Mohamed El-Erian, Bill Gross, Julia Király, Elena Liapkova-Pozsar, Perry Mehrling, Krisztián Orbán, James Sweeney Zsuzsa Delikát and Tamás Vojnits for very helpful discussions and comments. © McCulley and Pozsar 1 HELICOPTER MONEY : OR HOW I STOPPED WORRYING AND LOVE FISCAL-MONETARY COOPERATION 1. - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY : The aim of this paper is to describe the nature of secular private deleveraging cycles and exp