商业银行收益的评估与预测技巧.pdfVIP

ThinkingA Mind Tools: Applications and Solutions Understanding Banks Earnings: An Evaluation and Forecasting Technique Lee Humphries The year-to-year change in a banks earnings per share (EPS) is driven by the fluctuating values of nine critical ratios. This paper defines those ratios and shows how to integrate them into a spreadsheet routine that will: • isolate their respective dollar-and-cents contributions to annual changes in EPS, • measure their relative power to improve EPS, and • calculate future EPS based on their projected values. This analytical technique is useful to both investors and managers. It quantifies for investors the effect on EPS of past ratio changes, and it helps them evaluate the banks capacity for future earnings increases. It reveals to managers those operational areas where improvements will yield the greatest bottom line benefits, and it allows them to calculate the EPS effect of targeted ratio changes. I. Nine Critical Ratios Definitions A banks EPS is determined by the interaction of nine critical ratios, which we define in the following way. RATIO 1: INTEREST EXPENSE ÷ AVERAGE LIABILITIES —the average interest rate paid on total average liabilities. RATIO 2: PROVISION FOR LOAN LOSSES ÷ INTEREST INCOME —the loan loss provision rate. RATIO 3: INTEREST INCOME ÷ TOTAL REVENUE —the percent of revenue derived from interest income. RATIO 4: NON-INTEREST EXPENSE ÷ TOTAL REVENUE LESS INTEREST EXPENSE —commonly known as the efficiency ratio. A bank with significant tax exempt interest income will sometimes increase the ratios denominator, total revenue l