[工程科技]BayesianSelectionofsignmuwithinmSUGRAinGlobalFitsIncludingWMAP5Results.pdfVIP

Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2008-31 8 0 0 2 l Bayesian Selection of sign µ within mSUGRA in u J 8 Global Fits Including WMAP5 Results 2 ] h p - p e h [ Farhan Feroz 1 Cavendish Laboratory, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE, UK v E-mail: f.feroz@mrao.cam.ac.uk 2 1 5 Benjamin C Allanach 4 . 7 DAMTP, CMS, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK 0 8 E-mail: b.c.allanach@damtp.cam.ac.uk 0 : v Mike Hobson i X Cavendish Laboratory, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE, UK r E-mail: mph@mrao.cam.ac.uk a Shehu S AbdusSalam DAMTP, CMS, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK E-mail: s.s.abdussalam@damtp.cam.ac.uk Roberto Trotta Astrophysics Department, Oxford University, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH, UK E-mail: rxt@astro.ox.ac.uk Arne M Weber Max Planck Inst. f¨ur Phys., F¨ohringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich, Germany E-mail: arne.weber@mppmu.mpg.de Abstract: We study the properties of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (mSUGRA) by performing fits to updated indirect data, including the relic density of dark matter inferred from WMAP5. In order to find the extent to which µ 0 is dis- favoured compared to µ 0, we compare the Bayesian evidence values for these models, which we obtain straightforwardly and with good precision from the recently developed multi–modal nested sampling (‘MultiNest’) technique. We find weak to moderate evi- dence for the µ 0 branch of mSUGRA over µ 0 and estimate the ratio of probabilities to be P (µ 0)/P (µ 0) = 6−61 depending on the pri