王辛欣的毕业论文-西北大学经济管理学院.docVIP

成绩 本科毕业论文（设计） 题目：货币供应量、股票价格与消费投资变动 ——基于中国1996—2008年月度数据的实证分析 学生姓名 王辛欣 学 号 2005030021 指导教师 范王榜 院 系 经济管理学院 专 业 经济学（基地班） 年 级 2005级 教务处制 摘 要 稳定的资产价格是一国国民经济持续、健康发展的基础，资产价格的大幅波动会对实体经济产生严重冲击。面对冲击，中央银行可以通过制定货币政策调节资本市场价格波动，进而稳定实体经济。这一调节过程可以分为两个环节：第一个环节是货币政策如何调节资本市场价格，第二个环节则是资本市场如何将货币政策的信息传导到实体经济、对实体经济产生影响。本文选取货币供应量作为货币政策的指标，选取股票价格作为资本市场价格的指标，以我国1996年至2008年的月度数据为基础，运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法对上述两个环节进行了分析，以期对我国货币政策通过资本市场影响实体经济这一过程的有效性做出判断。最后得出结论：在上述过程中，货币政策通过与股票市场的相互反馈作用对股票价格产生影响，央行难以直接而及时地对股票市场产生影响；同时，股票市场作为新的货币政策传导渠道，目前并不十分通畅，对于消费的财富效应和对于投资的q效应并未完全发挥出来。 关键词：货币供应量 股票价格 消费投资变动 Money Supply, Stock Price and Adjustment of Consumption Investment ?An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinas 1996–2008 Monthly Data Abstract The stability of asset price is a basis for a country’s sustainable, healthy development, large swings in asset prices would have a serious impact on the real economy. Facing the shock, the central bank can adjust the fluctuations of capital price by using monetary policy, and thus stabilize the real economy. This adjustment process can be divided into two segments: the first is how the monetary policy adjusts capital market prices, and second, how the capital market transmits the information of monetary policy to the real economy. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of Chinas monetary policy that impact on the real economy through the capital market, this paper selects money supply and stock price as indicators, using China’s monthly data based on 1996 to 2008, cointegration tests, and Granger causality test to verify the above measurement methods. Finally come to the conclusion: in the above-mentioned process, the monetary policy have an impact on stock prices through its mutual feedback effects with the stock market, the central bank is difficult to impact on the stock market directly; at the same time, the stock market as a new monetary policy transmission c