坡地脆弱性曲线在广域崩塌评价之应用-中华水土保持学会.PDFVIP

社團法人中華水土保持學會 102 年度年會─大會手冊暨研討會論文摘要集 1 坡地脆弱性曲線在廣域崩塌評估之應用 [1*] [2] [3] [4] [5] [5] 謝孟勳 雷祖強 李秉乾 林冠廷 謝昂泰 王子杰 摘 要 坡地崩塌具有相當複雜的不確定因素，導致其極難預測及評估。因此，機率化之廣域崩塌 評估技術是未來研究發展的趨勢。本研究以坡地脆弱性曲線表達特定降雨條件下可能引致坡地發生崩 塌之超越機率。研究中以陳有蘭溪為例，以辛樂克及莫拉克颱風事件中基於遙測影像判釋得到之崩塌 地變遷情形，基於斜坡單元作為流域集水區崩塌評估的基礎，以及利用「網格集群最大概似法」建立 坡地脆弱性曲線。考量地文分類（坡度及植生）建立不同雨量因子（小時降雨強度、有效前段降雨和 有效累積雨量）下之崩塌發生機率關係。最後，利用條件機率建立之崩塌脆弱性指標進行驗證。結果 顯示在廣域坡地崩塌之評估能力良好，可進一步應用於災害評估、脆弱性及風險模式相關研究之發展。 關鍵詞：崩塌、坡地脆弱性曲線、斜坡單元、雨量因子 。 Application of Landslide Vulnerability Curves on the Regional Landslides Assessment Meng-Hsun Hsieh[1*] Tsu-Chiang Lei[2] Bing-Jean Lee[3] Kuan-Ting Lin[4] Ang-Tai Sie[5] Zih-Jie Wang[5] ABSTRACT The trigger factors of landslide are quite complex and uncertain result in difficult prediction and assessment. Thus, probabilistic assessment models will been the future trend on research and development. Landslide vulnerability curves (LVC) expresses the probability of the slope reaching or exceeding landslide as a function of a specific rainfall measure. In the study, based on the geomorphological and vegetation condition factors and using the slope unit as the basis for watershed landslide assessment, LVC was developed using landslide data at the Chen-Yu-Lan Watershed in Taiwan during Typhoon Sinlaku and Morakot. The “Grid-based Clustering Maximum Likelihood Estimate” are used to construct LVC, different topographic factors (slope level and vegetation condition) are considered to construct landslide probability relationships with different rainfall indicates (rainfall intensity, preceding rainfall and cumulative rainfall). Finally, the LVC are verified b