高铁负荷特性研究资料.docVIP

高铁负荷特性研究 摘要 随着电力市场化的改革的不断深入和交通快速迅捷的需求，高铁的负荷特性分析将成为研究的热门课题。虽然目前我国高铁状况不太成熟，负荷波动性较大，但是随着国家的高度重视，负荷特性将会逐渐平稳。因此有必要分析其负荷特性且选择合适的负荷模型及负荷模拟算法提升负荷预测的精度。通过对负荷特性分析，电力企业能够正确把握供用电形势，加快电网建设，完善落实安全措施。从而对提升电网保供电能力，促进节能减排，对做好供电优质服务等具有现实意义。 高铁负荷特性分析是为了摸清高铁电网现状负荷特性，把握负荷特性变化的规律和发展趋势，探讨移峰填谷的有关政策措施，为高铁的经营和发展提供决策性参考依据。负荷特性分析的主要内容包括:高铁电网总体负荷特性分析、季节负荷特性影响分析、负荷指标影响分析、不同性质用地负荷同时率分析等等。首先，本文对前几个月的负荷特性进行了分析，用图形了解日平均负荷、峰谷值、负荷率的变化和规律，对其周期性进行深层次的理解；后通过spss软件对负荷进行了预测。采用了ARMA方法对2月14号进行负荷曲线模拟。利用高铁负荷特性分析和预测理解高铁的负荷特性，掌握评价标准，从而结合人们的出行和节假日合理安排负荷的分配。 本文的研究工作与实际项目紧密结合，并得到了令人满意的结果。 关键词：高速铁路 ，负荷特性分析，负荷预测，时间序列法 Load Characteristics of High Speed Rail Abstract With the electricity market reform and the deepening of the demand for faster transportspeed, the load characteristics of high-speed rail will become a hot research topic. Although Chinas high-speed rail is not very mature, and load more volatile, but as the country attached great importance to a smooth load characteristics will gradually. It is necessary to analyze the load charac-teristics and select the appropriate load model and load simulation algorithm to enhance the accuracy of load forecasting. Through the analysis of load characteristics, power for power companies to correctly grasp the situation and speed up construction of power grids, improve the implementation of safety measures. Thus enhance the capacity of power supply security, promote energy conservation, power quality services to the good of practical significance. Load characteristics of high-speed rail in order to find out the status of high-speed rail network load characteristics, to grasp the variation of load characteristics and trends of peak load shifting of the policy measures for the management and development of high-speed rail to provide reference for decision-making. Load characteristics of the main contents, the overall load characteristics of high-speed rail network analysis, impact analysis seasonal load characteristics, load index impact analysis, different types of land