Export-Led Growth Trends and Assessment - Carnegie 出口带动的增长趋势和评估-卡耐基.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * The Future of Export-Led Growth: a general assessment Otaviano Canuto Vice President and Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank Presentation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace June 29, 2009 Key Messages Export-led growth strategies propelled developing countries to higher levels of economic growth over the past two decades Current financial crisis triggered a decline in trade and the diffusion/deepening of export-led growth strategies tends to become harder Trade openness and export diversification remain key drivers for growth and development but substitutes for currency undervaluation and large current-account surpluses will have to be used 1. EXPORT-LED STRATEGIES AND THE LONG BOOM Financial crisis after a long boom * Source: World Bank: 2009 GEP. Growth of real GDP, percent Developing High-income Global current account (im)balances Source: The Turner Review, FSA, March 2009 US current account deficit and gross capital flows Source: The Turner Review, FSA, March 2009 Foreign-ownership of marketable US Treasury bonds as percentage of total amounts outstanding Source: The Turner Review, FSA, March 2009 Household debt as proportion of the GDP Source: The Turner Review, FSA, March 2009 2. BASIS OF GROWTH: EXPORTS, TRADE SURPLUS, OR INDUSTRIALIZATION? Rapid growth associated with openness * Real Exports / GDP in 1997 Average real GDP per capita growth (1997-2007) Source: World Bank Group - DECPG Speed of openness positively associated with faster growth * Change in Real Exports / GDP (2007-1997) Source: DECPG Average real GDP per capita growth (1997-2007) Terms of trade volatility Developing Countries: Terms of trade volatility (1996-2006) Source: Gamberoni and Newfarmer, 2009 based on authors calculation based on World Bank, World Development Indicators Dependence on fewer exports exposes countries to terms of trade shocks Necessity products are more inelasti