SectoralProductivityTrends部门的生产力趋势.pdfVIP

University of Groningen Groningen Growth and Development Centre Sectoral Productivity Trends: Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence Research Memorandum GD- 118 Fulvio Castellacci1, Bart Los and Gaaitzen J. de Vries RESEARCH MEMORANDUM Sectoral Productivity Trends: Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence 1 2 2 Fulvio Castellacci , Bart Los and Gaaitzen J. de Vries 1Norwegian Institute of International Affairs NUPI, Department of International Economics, P.O. Box 8159 Dep., 0033 Oslo, Norway. fc@nupi.no. 2 University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics/Groningen Growth and Development Center, P.O. Box 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands. b.los@rug.nl; g.j.de.vries@rug.nl. Abstract In their influential study on productivity growth at the sector-level, Bernard and Jones (1996, BJ) observed convergence of aggregate labor productivity levels in 14 highly developed countries in 1970-1987. They also found evidence that this could be attributed to convergence in services productivity rather than in manufacturing. The main question this paper addresses is whether this result can be generalized to a broader set of countries. Several strands of growth theory suggest that thresholds with regard to a variety of issues can lead to multiple growth regimes, which are likely to lead to very heterogeneous patterns of convergence and divergence. To analyze this, we use econometric techniques that explicitly allow for identification of parameter heterogen