中国食品安全研究报告2010.ppt

Food Security Issues in China: Challenges and Strategies Dr. Ke Bingsheng China Agricultural University Outline Past development and current situation Production growth 1978-2009 Trade Major challenges Rising demand Slow-down of production growth Policy practice and future perspectives 30 years reform and current policy Options for improvements Past development and current situation Declined agricultural shares Development 1978-2009 Grain production growth: 73%, or 1.8% on average per year Meat production: increased by over 7 times Fishery production: increased by over 8 times Farmers’ income: 7% annually in real term. Grain production in China1978-2009, in million tons Wheat production in China,  in million tons Paddy rice production in Chinain million tons Corn production in Chinain million tons Meat and milk production in Chinain million tons Agricultural and Food Trade in 2009 Net importer High dependence: import of soybean: 42.55 million tons, implying 15% of total cropping areas would be needed if produced domestically in 2009. Of 75% of soybean demand is imported. Import of edible oils: 10.29 million tons Import in the first eight months in 2010 Deficit of agri-and food trade：US$ 15.2 billion Soybean import: 35.53 million tons. Cotton: 2.17 million tons Edible oils: 5.77 million tons Agricultural and food trade in Chinaincluding fishery, in billion US$ Agricultural and food import in China% Agricultural and food export in China% Cereals Trade in Chinain million tons Soybean Trade in Chinain million tons Cotton Trade in China in million tons Edible oil trade in Chinain million tons Major challenges Challenges for balancing demand and supply (1) Continued demand: 90 million tons for 2005-2020, or 6 million tons per year: population growth: 47 million t urbanization (increased urban share in population): 10 million t income improvement: 10 million t growth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 million t Challenges for balancing deman