欧洲国际政治经济中心高级研究员康帕内拉：人民币国际化和多极货币体系的崛起［英文版］.pdfVIP

ECIPE WORKING PAPER • No. 01/2014 THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE RENMINBI AND THE RISE OF A MULTIPOLAR CURRENCY SYSTEM By Miriam Campanella Miriam Campanella (miriam.campanella@unito.it) is a Senior Fellow at ECIPE ABSTRACT The dollar’s steady depreciation has had little impact on the official reserves of central banks. As scholars of the international monetary system debate whether the dollar can continue to play the dominant role in the interna- tional monetary system, actual developments in exchange relations already give reason to expect that the world’s currency regime is changing. Recent measures taken by China to internationalize its renminbi, including several bilateral swap agreements signed with other central banks, have reinforced other eastward trends in the world economy. In this paper, China’s acceleration of renminbi internationalization is examined. The growth of renminbi-based trade and settlements has made it Asia’s new reference currency, surpassing the US dollar. These developments are mostly due to the effects of the financial crisis and have been supported by the region’s economic and financial integration. As a reference currency of necessity or choice, the emergence of the renminbi in Asia is set to weaken the current global dominance of the US dollar. In conclusion, the paper makes the case that the growth of the renminbi as an international currency could generate a multipolar currency system that balances and distributes responsibilities in a better way than the current currency regime. JEL Code: F02, F33 Keywords: China, Renminbi, international monetary system, capital account liberalizisation, reserve currency. info@ Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium Phone +32 (0)2 289 1350