全球航空机队预测20142033.pdfVIP

World Fleet Forecast 2014 - 2033 Introduction Every year, Avolon prepares a World Fleet Forecast that projects growth and changes in the global commercial jet fleet over a 20 year period, including aircraft deliveries, storage, retirements and passenger-to-freighter (“P2F”) conversions. For passenger aircraft, the resulting capacity is compared to a forecast of annual worldwide passenger traffic demand. The resulting load factors are used to measure changes in operating efficiency and to estimate the level of capacity surplus or shortfall. Freighter aircraft capacity is benchmarked against forecast demand for air cargo and the proportion of the total that is expected to be transported on dedicated cargo aircraft. 2014 World Fleet Forecast Summary Chart 1 - Average 20 Year Growth Rates GDP 3.2% Against a backdrop of 3.2% average annual growth in global RPKs 5.2% economic activity over the next 20 years, Avolon is forecasting ASKs 5.1% passenger traffic to increase by 5.2% per annum (Chart 1), Cargo Traffic 5.6% equivalent to an average 1.6x GDP multiple. Capacity is expected Fleet Size 3.4% to increase more slowly, by 5.1% annually on average. Cargo Fuel burn per ASK -1.3% demand is forecast to grow at a ra