SCM供应链管理-库存管理、供应链契约与风险分担.pptVIP

 Inventory Management Outline 经济订货批量Economic Ordering Quantity The Effect of Demand Uncertainty 供应链契约?? Sequential Optimization –No Risk Sharing??（风险分担） 回购?? 收入共享契约 其它契约，理论上来说有无数种 Service Level: (s, S) Policy Periodic Review Policy?? Risk Pooling: Centralized集中 vs. Decentralized分散 Systems?? Inventory Turn Over Ratio The Effect of Demand Uncertainty Most companies treat the world as if it were predictable可以预测的: Production and inventory planning are based on forecasts of demand made far in advance of the selling season Companies are aware of demand uncertainty when they create a forecast, but they design their planning process as if the forecast truly represents reality?? In reality, much demand uncertainty: Short product life cycles “Bullwhip effect牛鞭效应”: Increase in variability as we travel up in the supply chain from customer demand, retailer, wholesaler批发商, distributor, factory, to supplier forecasts Demand Forecast The three principles of all forecasting techniques: Forecasting is always wrong The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast Aggregate forecasts are more accurate 案例：SnowTime Sporting Goods Fashion items have short life cycles, high variety of competitors?? SnowTime Sporting Goods New designs are completed One production opportunity，不符合EOQ使用的前提。 Based on past sales, knowledge of the industry, and economic conditions, the marketing department has a probabilistic概率的 forecast The forecast averages about 13,000, but there is a chance that demand will be greater or less than this. Supply Chain Time Lines SnowTime Demand Scenarios SnowTime Costs 单位生产成本 (C): $80?? 单位售价 (P): $125?? 单位残值 (S): $20?? 固定成本 (F): $100,000?? Q is production quantity, D demand?? Profit =Revenue -Variable Cost -Fixed Cost + Salvage SnowTime Scenarios 情形1 Scenario One (Manufactured Demand): Suppose you make 12,000 jackets and demand ends up being 13,000 jackets. Profit = 125(12,000) -80(12,000) -100,000 = $440,000?? Scenario Two (Manufactured Demand): Supp