2007年美国大学生数学建模C题 一等奖论文.doc

United Nations for Organ Sharing February 9,2007 Abstract In our paper, we focus on the problems about organ transplantation. Considering there are too many factors affecting the number of transplantations ,we use the method of principal component analysis to choose five relative important factors .Based on the five factors and the data gained from the OPTN website ,we establish a multiple linear regression equation as follows: ,where Y represents the number of transplantations. Using this equation, we find out the bottlenecks are the recipient ethnicity and donors’ number . We get a conclusion that more resources should be used in increasing the donors’ number. It’s better to divided into smaller networks. We choose Germany to investigate whether the US transplantation policies are suitable to it, and the result is negative, so we modify our models .At last we write a paper to the Congress according to our model. The procedure we devised uses multi-objective programming to maximize the number and quality of exchanges. We allow the match between arbitrary patient and donor so that the kidney resources can be made enough use. When every participant accepts the procedure result, we can get the optimal result. The procedure will generate 1328 more annual transplantations. We devise a simple strategy for a patient. Adopting our strategy, the patient can easily judge whether he should take the offer. Of course the risk exists. Through analysis and discussion, we conclude that the criteria and policies need some amendments, and our object is to maximize the overall welfare of the group. Then we write our recommends to the Director of the US Health Resources and Services. Analyzing the risks and personal issues which will influence the decisions of the potential donors, we display how they work on the donors. Then we modify our models to reflect these issues. Introduction Since the first successful kidney transplantation happened in year of