商业模型英文教程Module6RiskandReturnModelCopy.pptVIP

10-* Module 6: Risk Analysis 10-* Risk Analysis Risk analysis is an approach for developing an understanding of risk in making decisions Examines the impacts of uncertainty in estimates of inputs and their potential interaction with one another on the output variable of interest 10-* Monte-Carlo Simulation Build a spreadsheet model for a decision problem Recognize and identify uncertainty associated with model variables Generate a probability distribution for outcome variables Analyze the effects of the uncertain variables on the outcome variables. 10-* Financial Analysis Model Uncertain inputs Output variables 10-* Typical Risk Analysis Questions What are the chances that the we save not enough for retirement? How likely is it that cumulative profits over five years would not exceed $100,000? What profit are we likely to realize with a probability of at Best or worst situation? 10-* Trend Chart 10-* Reports and Data Extraction Create customized reports from the Analyze menu Extract data into an Excel worksheet Statistics Percentiles Chart Bins – the intervals in the forecast chart along with their probability and frequency of occurrences. Sensitivities – sensitivity data for all pairs of assumptions and forecasts Trial Values – the generated assumption and forecast values for each simulation trial. 10-* Cash Budgeting Model 10-* Trend Chart Results 10-* Project Management