住宅次市场界定及住宅价格空间分析 以新升格之台南市为例.PDF

29 54 JOURNAL OF HOUSING STUDIES, VOLUME 24 NO. 1, JUNE 2015 Housing Submarket Delineation and Spatial Analysis of Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Newly - Upgraded Tainan Municipality * Bor-Ming Hsieh* 摘　要 關鍵詞：住宅次市場、住宅價格、集群分析、空間自我相關分析 ABSTRACT Housing prices are spatially dependent and are significantly influenced by spatial submarkets. Based on Tainan city, a new special municipality resulting from the merging of the city and the county, this study has used different methods regarding political boundaries, cluster analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis to classify housing price submarkets and to analyze the prediction accuracy of housing prices. The results show a clear pattern of housing price allocation where higher prices are concentrated in inner city areas and prices decrease with an increase in the distance to the city center. Moreover, it is found that there exists significant spatial dependence among housing prices in the Tainan municipality. Housing submarkets delineated by spatial autocorrelation analysis methods have more significant impacts on housing prices and can clearly improve housing price prediction accuracy. Key words: housing submarkets, housing prices, cluster analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis (本文於2012年11月13日收稿，2013年12月30 日審查通過，實際出版日期2015年6月) * Associate Professor, Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan, Taiwan. E-mail: bmhsieh@mail.cjcu.edu.tw (NSC99-2410-H-309-018) 30