基于信息取样偏差快速自修正Delphi方法的群体多属性决策.PDF

第39卷 第8期 北 京 工 业 大 学 学 报 Vol.39 No.8 2013年 8月 JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OFTECHNOLOGY Aug. 2013 基于信息取样偏差快速自修正Delphi 方法的群体多属性决策 1 1 2 向摇 宇 ,邹摇 平 ,马摇 丽 (1郾 昆明理工大学 管理与经济学院,昆明摇 650093;2郾 昆明理工大学 图书馆,昆明摇 650093) 摘摇 要:针对传统群体多属性决策过程偏向信息描述而忽视对决策过程本身的改善,Delphi方法过程繁琐、响应滞 后、受群体心理因素影响的缺陷,提出一种解决群体多属性决策问题的新模型,即将信息取样偏差模型获取决策综 合满意度的技术原理引入到Delphi方法中,得到一个具备快速自修正能力的Delphi群体多属性决策模型,并将模 型应用到高校学生选课的问题中加以验证. 结果表明,新模型无需在决策值与决策权重间进行复杂的权衡,并使得 Delphi过程能快速收敛. 关键词:群体多属性决策;信息取样偏差;综合满意度;Delphi方法 中图分类号:TP391 文献标志码:A 文章编号:0254-0037(2013)08-1172-07 Multi鄄attribute Group Decision鄄making Based on Rapid Self鄄adjusting Delphi Method with Biased Information Sampling 1 1 2 XIANG Yu ,ZOU Ping ,MA Li (1郾School of Management and Economy,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming650093,China; 2郾Library,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming650093,China) Abstract:A multi鄄attribute group decision鄄making model (MAGDMM) based on a rapid self鄄adjusting method is presented to solve problems that take place in the procedure of conventional Delphi decision making model,such asa complicated and cumbersomeprocessingprocedurewith a notable outcomelag, biased decision results caused by group psychological factors, etc. This model introduces the comprehensive satisfaction evaluation technology, developed according to biased information sampling model,into the Delphi method to improve its rapid processing and self鄄adjusting abilities. Moreover,as an illustrative example,th