宏观ADAS.ppt

第六节 AD－AS模型对现实的解释 宏观经济的短期目标 总需求曲线移动的后果 总供给曲线移动的后果 A AS Pe yf y P O P 一、宏观经济的短期目标 在短期中，宏观经济企图达到的目标是充分就业和物价稳定，即：不存在非自愿失业，同时，物价既不上升也不下降。 E AD E y1 P1 E y1 P1 AD A AS Pe yf P O AD AS P O AD AS A Pe A Pe yf 1. 短期 2. 长期（之一） 削减赤字 A AD 二、总需求曲线移动的后果 A AS Pe yf P O AD P1 AD E y1 AS E 2. 长期（之二） 扩张性货币政策 Pe The Neutrality of Money Over time, the price level increases, and the effects of a monetary expansion on output and on the interest rate disappear. The neutrality of money refers to the fact that an increase in the nominal money stock has no effect on output or the interest rate in the medium run. The increase in the nominal money stock is completely absorbed by an increase in the price level. A E AS Pe yf y P O P AS AS E E AD y 三、总供给曲线移动的后果 P P After the increase in the price of oil, the new AS curve goes through point A‘ , where output equals the new lower natural level of output, Y’f, and the price level equals Pe. The economy moves along the AD curve, from A to E. Output decreases from Yf to Y’. 石油冲击（滞胀） A A AS Pe yf P O AS E AD y y‘f 1. The Dynamics of Adjustment（短期） 2. The Dynamics of Adjustment（长期） Over time, the economy moves along the AD curve, from E to E’ . At point E’ ，the economy has reached the new lower natural level of output, Y’f, and the price level is higher than before the oil shock. A’ A AS Pe yf P O AS AS E E AD y y‘f P=Pe 滞胀 The combination of negative growth and high inflation, or stagnation accompanied by inflation, is called stagflation. The Effects of the Increase in the Price of Oil,1973-1975 1973 1974 1975 Rate of change of petroleum price (%) 10.4 51.8 15.1 Rate of change of GDP deflator (%) 5.6 9.0 9.4 Rate of GDP growth (%) 5.8 ?0.6 ? 0.4 Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 5.6 8.5 Conclusions The Short Run Versus the Medium Run Short-Run Effects and Medium-Run Effects of a Monetary Expansion, a Budget Deficit Reduction, and an Increase in the Price of Oil on Output, the Interest Rate, and the Price Level Short Run Medium Run  O