交通影响分析硕士论文汇.doc

摘 要 本文通过对国内外交通影响分析理论与实践的综述和比较，指出TIA研究需要解决的主要问题，以及我国TIA实践所面临的主要矛盾，进而结合美国经典的TIA理论，提出一套完整的大型公建交通影响分析的方法和模型。 其中，通过分析土地利用和交通的相互关系理论，从深层次上指明交通影响分析的实质，重新给出了交通影响分析的工作流程，并对交通影响分析的阈值、研究范围、小区划分、规划年限和高峰小时的确定做了详细的分析和说明。 在交通预测模型中，主张将TIA的交通预测分为项目交通预测和非项目及过境交通预测两个部分，并分别按四阶段法的模式进行出行生成、方式划分和出行分布的预测，然后合并项目交通和非项目及过境交通的分布矩阵，得到区域内的交通分布全OD矩阵，最后按照动态多路径方法进行交通分配，得到区域路网的预测流量。并提出采用方向比例系数法进行项目交通的分布预测；采用基于重力模型形式的反推现状OD法，由路网的现状观测流量反推出区域现状OD矩阵，再对非项目及过境交通进行分布预测。 在交通影响评价模型中，提出依据土地利用和交通的相互关系理论，从研究区域的土地利用状况、交通状况以及用地交通关系状况这三个方面，依次选取一个主要的评价指标，然后按照模糊数学原理建立评价模型，进行模糊综合评价。 最后以一个商业公建的TIA实例来验证该方法的可行性和适用性，进而体现出本文研究成果的“因情而变”之所在。 关键词：大型公建 交通影响分析 土地利用 交通需求预测 交通影响评价 应用方法 模型 Abstract On the basis of the analysis and comparison with the theories and practices of Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) in many countries, the main problems which should be resolved in the study of TIA are pointed out, and the primary difficulties existing in the practices of TIA in our country are indicated. Further, based on the classical TIA theory in USA, some integrated series of TIA approaches and models for the great public buildings are brought forward. Through the analysis with the interrelation between land use and traffic, the essence of TIA is deeply showed and the process of TIA is newly indicated. In addition, other preparation work of TIA is throughly stated. In the traffic demand forecast models, the traffic forecast should be divided into site traffic forecast and non-site through traffic forecast. The direction ratio modulus approach should be used to the site traffic distribution forecast, while the inverse calculating existing OD approach based on the gravity model should be used to the non-site and through traffic distribution forecast. In the traffic impact assessment models, according to the theory of the interrelation between land use and traffic, the assessment factors should be chosen from land use conditions, traffic conditions and their interrelation conditions, and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(