2004年香港雨量偏少的气候诊断.pdf

Reprint 571 2004 年香港雨量偏少的氣候診斷 許大偉、沈潔瑩 第十九屆粵港澳氣象科技研討會， 中國，廣東陽江，2005 年 3 月1-3 日 2004 年量 沈瑩 2004 年69 10錄量 231 132 143 數 來 流異 2004 年69 10 兩 125度利 125 度 北數 2004 年69 10來 量 3量 313 北 流省 了流量 Diagnostic for the Below Normal Rainfall in Hong Kong in 2004 T.W. Hui and K.Y. Shum Hong Kong Observatory Abstract Monthly rainfall in June, September and October 2004 were respectively 231, 132 and 143 mm below normal. A diagnostic study of the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with these dry conditions using NCEP re-analysis data showed that in these 3 months, the subtropical high over the western North Pacific was split into two cells with a col at around 125°E. The col was favourable for tropical cyclones to recurve east of Taiwan, resulting in fewer tropical cyclones entering the South China Sea and affecting the coastal areas of Guangdong. As a result, tropical cyclones brought no rainfall to Hong Kong in June, September and October. The climatological normal rainfall associated with tropical cyclones for these 3 months as a whole is 313 mm. In addition, the subsidence ahead of tropical cyclones recurving to the east of Taiwan suppressed convection over Guangdong. This could be another reason for the below normal rainfall in Hong Kong. 1 1. 2004 年 錄 年量 1738.6 475.7 21% 1884 年錄來 17 年 年異 2004 年行理 2. 數 量 1961 1990 年數 量 略量 參[1] 600 里 離 72 量 路best track 數 500 850度輻 NCEP 率2.5°x2.5°