毕业设计（论文）-基于logistic回归模型的污染总量减排措施绩效分析汇.docVIP

基于logistic回归模型的污染总量减排措施绩效分析 摘要 环境政策是政府进行环境管理的主要工具之一，对其进行绩效评价非常重要。本研究以全国30个省、市、自治区为例，通过定量化分析各类环境政策与污水COD总量减排绩效之间的关系，得到各政策对污染减排起到的作用。 通过查阅相关资料，运用头脑风暴法、专家评价法初步选出主要的污染减排影响因子，并得到各地区的GDP、COD排放等相关数据，用excel、SPSS软件对这些影响因子进行共线性诊断和单因子回归，进一步筛选这些变量，分别以不同的剔除标准进行回归分析，建立最优回归模型，获得各因子对减排绩效的贡献度。 研究结果表明，对减排绩效产生显著影响的因子按作用大小依次是：关停并转迁企业数(个) 、环评制度执行率(%)、当年新增废水治理设施去除的COD（吨），说明淘汰落后生产能力这类结构措施非常重要，经济管理方面的排污收费政策也起到了关键的作用，企业内部污水处理这方面的工程措施也对污染减排起到了一定的效果。另外，实际上污水处理量(万吨)与二产业比重(%)这两个因子数值大说明当地污染相对严重，倾向于使减排效果不显著，与模型分析结果一致。应该加强行业结构调整力度和淘汰落后企业能力，完善环评制度，大力推进进污水治理设施的建设和应用。 关键词：环境政策,影响因子,总量减排措施绩效, logistic回归模型 Study on the Performance of Measures for Reducing Total Emission Volumes based on Logistic Regression Model Environmental Science 05-1 Meng Xiao-ning Supervisor Wang Chun-mei Abstract Environmental policy is one of the governments main tools for environmental management. It is of great importance to evaluate their performance. In this study, we take 30 provinces and cities in our country as an example and quantitatively analyze the relationship between various types of environmental policies and COD emission reduction performances. Then we can know the role every policy played on the pollution abatement. Through searching relevant information and using brainstorming、experts evaluation methods we first pick out main factors which play important roles in the pollution emission reduction. Then we get the GDP, COD emissions and some other relevant data of various regions. Analyze the co-linearity of all the factors an do single-factor linear regression by excel、SPSS software for further screening . Do regression analysis with different standards in order to find the optimal regression model. At last, we can get the contribution of each the factors to emission reduction. The results show that factors which play an important role on the emission reduction according to the strength are: the number of enterprises which are closed or in transfer (a)、the implementation rate of the environmental