脆弱性研究总结与展望.DOC

脆弱性研究进展 摘要：从上世纪60年代脆弱性概念提出到21世纪脆弱性逐渐成为一门独立的新科学，在可持续发展和全球气候变化背景下，脆弱性已经成为评价地区发展状况的依据以及衡量未来发展规划的判据。基于国内外脆弱性研究文献的回顾和总结，本文对脆弱性概念起源、研究进展、研究方法、跨世纪研究进行了梳理和分析。脆弱性已经成为地理学、生态学以及相关学科的研究重点方向，在概念界定、研究对象、评价方法等方面进展突出，但是目前没有形成一个统一的脆弱性概念框架和理论体系，不同领域脆弱性成果交流和共享存在一定的难处，难以实现多学科交叉和共享。未来，脆弱性研究应从理论基础、技术方法和实践应用出发，关注耦合系统脆弱性过程与机制，建立统一的概念框架和理论体系，开展系统脆弱性动态评价和时空分析，推进脆弱性评价系统化、标准化和规范化，最终满足国家和地区可持续发展战略的需要。 关键字：脆弱性；研究进展；评价方法；耦合系统 Research progress of vulnerability Abstract: The concept of vulnerability has been put forward in the 1960s, and the vulnerability in the 21st century has gradually become an independent new science. In the context of sustainable development and global climate change, vulnerability studies have become the basis for assessing the state of development and criteria for measuring future development plans. Based on the review and summary of the research literature on vulnerability at home and abroad, this paper reviews and analyzes the origin of the concept of vulnerability, research progress, research methods and cross-century research. Vulnerability has become the focus of research in geography, ecology and related disciplines, and has made outstanding progress in the definition of concepts, research objects and evaluation methods, but there is no unified conceptual frame and theoretical system of vulnerability at present. There are some difficulties in the exchange and sharing of the results of the vulnerability in different fields, making it difficult to achieve multidisciplinary cross-cutting and sharing. In the future, based on theoretical basis, technical methods and practical application, vulnerability research should pay attention to the process and mechanism of the vulnerability of the coupled system, establish a unified conceptual framework and theoretical system, carry out the dynamic evaluation of the systems vulnerability and the analysis of the space-time, and promote the systematization and standardization of the vulnerability assessment. Ultimately, the vulnerabi