经济学人跨国公司在中国调查的报告ppt 13-.PPTVIP

China and the global economy Why ignoring China is no longer an option..... Robin Bew, Chief Economist June 2004 The global outlook Key points for 2004-05 World growth fantastic best for 20 years in 2004 developed and emerging markets surging ahead Exceptional times cannot last tipping point may have already passed international liquidity is tightening coping with the transition global policy tightening will slow world growth Slowdown likely, but risks of worse United States outlook Recent performance stunning more to come in the year ahead But policy stimulus being withdrawn strong momentum, but balance sheets? Restraining factors debts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit 2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06? Japan Domestic economy is restructuring under cover of export led growth But needs more time SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power cannot yet offset export slowdown Export deceleration will stall reform still a long way to go before domestic recovery in place Euro zone outlook Only a sluggish recovery exports but the euro restocking, capex business subdued consumers jobs, pensions Policy boost? debt levels pension fears Reform efforts? GDP growth, % Y-on-Y The emerging world Benefiting from OECD pickup import demand surging Selling into other emerging markets regional trade dynamics But risk appetite has fallen sharply past 18mths were extraordinary but investors now leaving spreads rising China’s role in the global story Key points for 2004-05 World growth fantastic China is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9% Exceptional times cannot last Chinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhere Commodities, trade Slowdown likely, but risks of worse Soft landings are hard to engineer some investors will be hurt The business response—FDI EIU survey of 500 business executives’ foreign direct investment strategies China the key focus New consumer mar