中国CO2排放权地区间分配效率及其影响因素的实证研究.docVIP

中国CO2排放权地区间分配效率及其影响因素的实证研究 - 1 - 傅京燕1,2，黄芬1* （1. 暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632； 5 2. 暨南大学资源环境与可持续发展研究所，广州 510632） 摘要：中国碳市场的形成意味着温室气体减排正式迈向市场化，如何合理科学的设置碳市场 的各个环节，从而促进全国碳市场的尽快建立和良好运行至关重要。而碳排放权的分配作为 碳市场的初始基本环节，其方法设定尤为关键。本文首先通过零和 DEA模型对历史排放分10 配法的效率性水平进行评估，发现各省市地区的平均效率水平较低，然后根据初次零和 DEA 的评估结果，通过多次迭代法进行投影，计算出效率性最大化的地区分配方案。其次，通过 实证分析各因素对 CO2排放量的影响方向和程度，发现经济发展是影响 CO2排放的主要原 因，且我国受经济发展和资源禀赋的限制，短期内 CO2 排放绝对值仍将持续上升，可以通 过不断改进工艺、提高能源利用效率以及加强对外资企业的环境规制，实现碳排强度的下降。 15 关键词：人口资源与环境经济学；分配效率；碳排放权；碳交易市场 中图分类号：F An empirical research on the efficiency of regional distribution of CO2 emission quotas of Chinese carbon 20 trading market and influence factors of carbon emission magnitude FU Jiangyan 1,2 , HUANG Fen 1 (1. School of Economics,Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632; 2. Resource,Environment and Sustainable Development Research Institute of Jinan University, 25 Guangzhou 510632) Abstract: The formation of China#039;s carbon market means the officially marketization of greenhouse gas reduction of China. It is vital that how each part of this market is designed in a way that is reasonable and scientific for the establishing of the national carbon market and operate coherently. So, the initial distribution of carbon emissions, as one of the basic step of the 30 carbon market, is essential as for as concerned. This paper attempts to find an efficient distribution way for regional carbon emissions of China in the condition of the total quotas of carbon emission is under certain constraints, using Zero-Sum-Gains DEA mode (ZSG-DEA).This paper found that the average efficiency levels are modest. Then, according to the initial results, the paper calculated the efficiency-maximized distribution plan through the multi-iterative method. And the paper 35 empirically analyzed the various factors on CO2 emission direction and magnitude and found that the level of economic development is the main factor that influencing the quantity of CO2 emissions. Affected by th