基于不同货币锚的汇率浮动对经济长短期影响-long - term and short-term effects of exchange rate floating on economy based on different monetary anchors.docxVIP

AbstractExchange rate fluctuations serves as the main monetary policy used by every country to intervene economic development. The governments of the countries and districts make it the priority after the economic crisis and consider it the most important factor to keep a stable economy.In twentieth Century thirty,by Keynes’ study, exchange rate fluctuations is an efficient way to regain international competitiveness quickly.On the contrary,Hayek criticized expansionary monetary policy , he also considered a stable monetary policy as the most effective way to keep a long term of economic growth.The different influences of fluctuation of exchange rate on long term or short term economic growth would be a very significant guideline for making proper monetary policies.If any country wants to have a stable monetary circumstance they need to pay their attention to the anchor currency.As the economic and political pattern keep changing, the international monetary market also changed significantly.From gold standard to the bretton woods system and then to the collapse of the system, anchor currency is no longer based on gold or dollar but multi-currencies.As a result of that, different country chooses different kind of anchor currency considering their own conditions like the foreign trade status, industrial development model, geographical conditions and etc.This article studies the different influences put by exchange rate fluctuations of various anchor currencies on the long term and short term economic development in the worldwide range.As the examples adopted by this article are very representative and universal, this study on the influence of exchange rate policies would be conducive to build our own monetary policy by providing the theoretical and practical foundations.This article chosen 39 countries and divided them into 4 different groups based on their different anchor currencies as a special way to build the dynamic error correction model. The panel data analysi