基于要素组合的灾害情景方法分析-analysis of disaster scenario method based on combination of factors.docxVIP

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基于要素组合的灾害情景方法分析-analysis of disaster scenario method based on combination of factors.docx

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基于要素组合的灾害情景方法分析-analysis of disaster scenario method based on combination of factors

AbstractThecontinuedoccurrenceofthedisasterbroughtincalculabledamagetohumanbeings,thesametime,expertsandscholarsinthefieldofglobaldisasterresponseisalsoongoingresearchandinnovationinthetheoryandmethodstorespondtodisasters.Wenchuanearthquakedisaster:nowmaterialcivilizationishighlydeveloped,thehumanandthenaturalenvironmentmorecloselylinkedcase,thedisasterisnotjustadirectroleinhumanharm,itcanalsoseriouslydamagedtheinfrastructureofhumansociety,triggeringothertypesofdisasters,whichmakesmoreobviouslyaseriousnegativeconsequencesofdisasters,anddisasterrelieftocopewiththesituationmorecomplex,chaotic,disasterreliefpolicymakerscannotfullyaccesstodisasterinformation.Inthecaseofthissituation,basedontheelementsofthescenarioanalysismethodtodescribeandshowthedisastersceneanditsfutureevolution,toprovidedecisionmakerswithcomprehensive,criticalinformationsothatitcangivereasonableandtimelydecisions.Thispaperstudiesthebackground,afterthebackground,thenputforwardthisarticletostudytheproblem;Summaryofrelatedresearchathomeandabroadfortheproblem,summarizetheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthepresentstudy,todeterminethebasisofthisstudy,andthencometotheoverallresearchframeworkofthepaper;firsttobuildascenemodel,theresponsemeasuresbasedonthepropertystatusofthescenariosgiven,definethesceneofthedisastersystem,scenereconstruction,sceneelementsthemeaningoftheconcept,theyexistedbeforethecontact;processtoextendthegeneraleventstodefinethefourdisastereventsstage,namelytheoccurrence,development,evolution,andtheendoftheprocessofthisSec,andanalysistoexploretheaboveprocesscharacteristicsandmechanism;exploresthecharacteristicsandsourcesofinformationofthedisastereventandhowtogetre-treatment,inordertobuildareasonablescenarios;then,giventheelementsofthedefinitionofthedisasterwithinthesystem,andthatinadisastereventprocess,themutualinfluenceandtransformationofthedisasterelements,whichrunsthroughtheelementsofportfoliotheory,thesceneofthedisastereventsbuildtolaythebasisforthetheoreticalpartofthe.Exploretheicecoverdisa