巢湖西半湖水华暴发的多元驱动因子研究及趋势预测-study on multivariate driving factors and trend prediction of outbreaks in west half lake of chaohu lake.docx

出定性预测。同时，模型筛选出的显著水华驱动因子为水位、TN、CODMn 和气 温等，与相关分析和主因子分析结果一致，互为佐证。对巢湖西半湖的水华分布特征作出分析。巢湖西半湖的水华藻类种群结构 为鱼腥藻和微囊藻，叶绿素 a 浓度呈现夏高冬低的季节性变化规律，且夏季峰值明显逐年下降而冬季数值差异较小。水华高发期为 7~9 月，主要聚集在塘西、 派河入湖区和西半湖湖心，并且藻类聚集区逐渐由北向南移动。本文研究结果可为巢湖水华控制预报工作提供科学依据，也可作为其他区 域展开水华研究的理论和参考。关键词：富营养化；水华；多元驱动因子；数值模拟；多元时间序列分析； 巢湖AbstractIn recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) frequently occurred in the lakes and ponds of China with expanding covered area and increasing intensity. The Lake Chaohu is one of the five most important fresh lakes in China, and is also the largest one in Anhui Province. According to the monitoring data from lo