分布式能源供应链的规划与鲁棒运作分析-planning and robust operation analysis of distributed energy supply chain.docxVIP

效果。同时，通过与同条件下采用集中供能所用成本的对比，证明了用 双层规划进行区域分布式能源供能网络规划的良好效益。 研究中将不可运作性输入输出模型（ Inoperability Input-Output Model, IIM）创新性地应用于不安全环境下分布式能源供应链的运作鲁 棒性评估和优化方面。并根据供应链节点间相互关系影响因素的特点， 提出新的基于有序加权平均（Ordered Weighted Averaging, OWA）算子 的相互关系矩阵评价方法，对原 IIM 的相互关系矩阵评价方法进行了改 进。IIM 不仅可以评估出突发事件对分布式能源供应链运作水平的直接 影响而且可以评估由节点间相互依赖关系引起的在节点间传递和蔓延 的间接影响。本文分别以“不可运作性”和“经济损失”为鲁棒评价指 标，评价了不安全环境下分布式能源供应链各节点的运作鲁棒性，在对 评估结果分析的基础上，提出相应鲁棒优化措施，并用 IIM 分析了优化 措施的效果。通过基于蒙特卡洛的 EXTEND 仿真分析，验证了 IIM 在 分布式能源供应链中应用的有效性。 关键词：分布式能源供应链，双层规划，k-means 聚类算法，禁忌搜索， 不可运作性输入输出模型，鲁棒性指标，供应链安全，多指标评价分析 第 II 页 第 第 PAGE IV 页 STUDY ON PLANNING AND ROBUST OPERATIONS FOR DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORKS ABSTRACT With the increasing reliance on energy and the exposed disadvantages of the traditional centralized energy supply system, how to find out a new energy system has become the world’s problem to be solved. Due to the high efficiency of energy use, small environmental negative impacts, high reliability of energy supply and good economic benefits, distributed energy system (DES) has been hailed as a golden key to solve the energy problems and has become the core technology in the new type energy systems. Thus, from the perspective of the energy supply chain, it is very significant to study on the planning and the robust operation of the distributed energy supply chain network, which could provide the reference and recommendations for the efficient use of the DES. This paper focuses on the planning of the distributed energy supply network and the robust operation of the DES supply chain under unsafe environment. And the research tries to provide the suggestions and reference for the efficient use of the DES and for developing energy supply networks with high efficiency, low cost and high reliability. Based on the theory of Bi-level Programming, according to the fluctuant power and heat demand of customers in a region, taking the minimum cost of the regional DES construction and operation as objective function, a bi-leve