高速铁路经济影响分析及客流预测研究-study on economic impact analysis and passenger flow forecast of high-speed railway.docxVIP

致谢中文摘要摘要：高铁的产生将有效整合铁路运力资源，将使既有铁路的运力得以释放，缓 解长期以来客运和货运的紧张矛盾。这将使城市资源重新进行评估，高铁的通车 会使城市获得高速交通优势，使城市的辐射能力加强。快捷、便利、安全等诸多 优势，使越来越多的人将高铁作为出行的首选，这对高铁开通沿线城市第三产业 的发展起到重要的助推作用。本论文以高速铁路的社会经济影响和客流预测为主题，首先分析了高速铁路 对社会经济发展的影响，量化高速铁路对经济的重要影响；随后对运输组织中的 关键基础问题-客流预测进行了研究，并以京沪高速铁路为对象进行实证分析，预 测结果显示高速铁路运能较为充足，进而对如何提高高速铁路市场份额的营销策 略进行了分析。论文主要完成了以下工作：（1）使用 DEA 法量化研究了京沪铁路对沿线社会、经济、环境的影响及综 合影响，结果表明高速铁路对经济发展的影响具有层次性，社会经济发展程度越 好的城市受到的影响程度越大。（2）以京沪通道为例，基于客流调查数据采用简化的四阶段法对京沪通道进 行了运量预测。在四阶段法中将前两阶段即交通生成和交通分布进行了合并，并 将既有线与高速铁路作为两种交通方式来计算分担客流量。根据客流预测结果， 推算出列车对数，并与正在运营的情况进行了比对分析，分析认为高速铁路运能 较为充足，应加强高速铁路运输组织，提高高速铁路市场份额。（3）定性分析高速铁路在客运市场中的定位，指出既有线应该更多的保证货 物运输，而客流应该集中到高速铁路上，并提出高速铁路提高竞争力的营销策略。 关键词：高速铁路；经济评价；DEA 法；客流预测；营销策略分类号：U292ABSTRACTABSTRACT: Generation of high-speed rail will effectively integrate transportation resources, and the conventional rail transportation capacity can be released to ease long-standing tensions contradictions between passenger and freight. This will allow the city to re-evaluate resources, get high-speed urban transportation advantages, which will strengthen the citys ability to make radiation. Fast, convenient, safe, and many other advantages, so that more and more people prefer to high-speed rail when traveling, which helps the tertiary industry developing in the cities alone high-speed rail.In this thesis, the theme was the social and economic impact of high-speed railway and passenger flow forecast. Firstly, this thesis analyzed the impact of high-speed railway on the socio-economic development, using the numeric measure to evaluate the impact of high-speed rail on the economy. Subsequently, the thesis studied the key underlying problem of transport organization - traffic forecasts. Then the thesis conducted passenger flow forecast using Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail as an example. Forecasts showed that high-speed rail transport capacity is more abundant. Thus, on how to improve high-speed rail market share marketing strategies were analyzed.The thesis completed the following