血吸虫病流行的评估与预测预警分析-evaluation, prediction and early warning analysis of schistosomiasis epidemic.docx

华中科技大学博士学位论文 华 中 科 技 大 学 博 士 学 位 论 文 IV IV Hierarchy Process (AHP) were applied to screen the indicators and determine their internal weights for establishing schistosomiasis monitoring and early warning indicator system. 4. SWOT analysis was used to explore the internal and external impact factors for improving the ability of schistosomiasis monitoring and early warning in China and putting forward corresponding strategies and intervention measures. Results The residents’ infection rates of schistosomiasis in Qianjiang City and Yangxin County had decreased to 0.41% and 2.18%, respectively. The residents’ parasitological prevalence of schistosomiasis decreased year by year (P for Cochran-Armitage trend χ 2 test was less than 0.05) and the farmers and males were still at high risk of schistosomiasis infection. The prevalence of cattle in two national surveillance sites of Qianjiang City and Yangxin County also decreased to 1.96% and 1.67%, respectively, but the situation of gracing of cattle in the grasslands was still very widespread. Additionally, the percentage of infected snails in two national surveillance sites of Qianjiang City and Yangxin County had dropped to 0.00% and 0.24%, respectively, whereas the total area of snail habitats was not obviously and effectively compressed. Time series ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model and grey prediction model were well fitted to the data of schistosomiasis infection. These two models were proved to be reasonable models with relatively high prediction accuracy. The actual values of schistosomiasis infection rates were all in the 95% confidence interval of the predictive values. The prediction results showed that the residents’ schistosomiasis infection rates in Qianjiang City would continue to decrease slightly in the next two years. The indicator system for schistosomiasis epidemic situation monitoring and early warning included 5 first-level indicators, 15 second-level indicators and 48 third-level indicators. Among these i