通货膨胀的门槛效应与中国经济增长.docVIP

通货膨胀的门槛效应与中国经济增长 2013年的月筝来锥晴管~IJul.,2013 East China Economic Management (第27卷第07期)(Vo1.27 ,No.07) [001] 10 .3969/j.时n.1007-5097.2013.07.011 ·中国经济通货膨胀的门槛效应与中国经济增长唐雪莲建克成2(1.安庆师范学院团委，安徽安庆246000;2.安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院，安徽蚌埠233030)摘要:迄今为止，通货膨胀与经济增长之间关系仍然是一个争而未决的难题。文章通过建立一个旨在说明通货膨胀与经济绵长之间关系的非线性而板门F!l回归模型，并以通货膨胀变化率作为门限交受以及利用我国1985-2011年的省际面板数据进行实证检验发现:通货膨胀变化率小于门限变量。.0800时，通货膨胀可以促边经济增长.当通货膨胀变化率位于门Ftt交量0.520与0.08ω之间时，通货膨胀对经济增长的正向拉动作用最为明显;然而当通货膨胀变化率高于较大的第二个门F!l值时，通货膨胀则与经济增长负相关.，因此，文章认为控制通货膨胀的相对精长速度与其绝对水乎同样重妥。关键词:通货膨胀;而板门限回归模型;非线性效应;经济增长中图分类号F820.5文献标志码A文章编号以)7-5ω7(2013) 07-0044-04 The Threshold effect of Inflation and Economic Growth of China 2 TANG Xue-lian’. JIAN Ke-cbeng(J.Chinese COl1ununist YOl1th League COl7/milt(#039;(~， A叫ingNOrt/wl Unil!l’rsit)’, An qing 246000, Ch??w; 2.Scllool 0/ Firu/llce clIlcl Public Atlmill tmt??m, Anhui Ullivl’rsit)’ 0/ Ilt; n{U/ce ancl Public, Bellgbu 233030. Chilla) Abslract: Ihe relal iOllship belween inOalion anrl economj(’ gr01川his sliU a pending iSSIlf’ ~() far. This paper eSlablishes a Ilon-linear panel Ihre~hnld model to ilh阴lrate1111’ rclalil1nship bel\\een inOalion Illld economic吕rnwth，and sel肘l恼theinflalion rale change as the Ihl#039;(#039;~hl1ld variable. By lIsing the provirlC’iul panel !lata of elllpirical lesling in China from 1985 10201 I years, \V~、fi1111HIthal when Ihc inOation rale of f’hange is lower I),an lhe lh陀sholdval’iable 0.0800, 1111:’ inllalion C’an proll1ole eeonoll1ic growlh. Whal’ S l1lorc, when the chllnge in Ihe thresholrl variabJe is b巳Iween0.520 ancl 0.0800, lhe positive e汀#039;ectof inf1alion in lJOosting econolllie grOl训11is ll10re ohvinlls. Howevf’I’, when Ihe change is higher than th.., larger ,,(’ th俨seC#039;onJIhrl’shold val??时.Ihc inf1ation is ne伊livelycorrelall’cI with econollli,’ growt.h. Thereforf’, the control of infl日tionrelative growlh ratt’ is consiJ??erf’d as illlportllnl as ，，1陷。IlJl.elevelconlrol. Kcy words: in!lalion; Ihe panellhrωholclmodel; nt川-li#039;#039;#039;#039;??re.rfel’l; f’(’onomic growl