linear regression （cont（商务统计英文版）） PPT课件.ppt

BEO1106 - Week 10 BEO1106 - Week 10 Business StatisticsBEO 1106 * * WEEK 10 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (cont.) TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS Reference: Selvanathan et al. (2004), Chapters 11, 13 EVALUATING SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION There is just one independent variable in the model. The relationship between X and Y can be depicted with a straight line. Ex 1: (Selvanathan 2004 ed. - p.494, ex.11.72 (2000 ed.- p.419, ex.11.61)) The manager of Colonial Furniture has been reviewing weekly advertising expenditures. During the past six months all advertisements for the store have been appeared in the local newspaper. The number of ads per week has varied from one to seven. The store’s sales staff has been tracking the number of customers who enter the store each week. The number of ads and the number of customers per week for the past 26 weeks have been stored in the file Xr11-72. Number of ads per week is the independent variable (X), and the number of customers per week is the dependent variable (Y). The purpose of advertising in the local newspaper is to boost sales, so we expect a positive relationship between X and Y. Graph the paired observations of X and Y. This scatter diagram shows that, at least in the sample, there is some rather weak positive linear relationship between the numbers of ads and customers. Determine the sample regression line. We are going to rely on Excel. However, at home, try to reproduce the results manually using the sum of squares: SSx = 86.654, SSy = 463802 and SSxy = 1850.6. Using Excel: Interpret the coefficients. This means that when X,= 0, i.e. no advertisement is placed in the local newspaper, the expected number of customers per week is 296.92. suggesting that on a given week for each additional advertisement in the local newspaper the number of customers is expected to increase by 21.356. Find and interpret the coefficient of determination. This suggests that only 8.5% of the total variation in the number of customers can be explained,