2009美国制药行业的研究的报告.pptVIP

* 06 March 2009 Americas/United States Equity Research Major Pharmaceuticals / MARKET WEIGHT US Major Pharmaceuticals Research Analysts Catherine J. Arnold 212 538 6225 catherine.j.arnold@ Michael Faerm 212 538 1771 michael.faerm@ Vamil Divan 212 538 5394 vamil.divan@ COMMENT Tax Reform Lacks Detail, Worst Case Scenario Materially Negative The Market is left confused regarding the specific intent of President Obama’s budget proposal reference to implement international enforcement, reform deferral and other tax reform policies. There could be many important nuances to the plans which are projected to generate $210Bn over 10 years. The ‘worst case scenario’ that we could imagine is a complete elimination of the foreign profit tax deferral and a 35% consolidated tax rate for all companies. This would be a material negative for all of our names (Exhibit 1) with 2010 earnings decreasing from 6.8% for PFE/WYE pro forma to 22.2% for SGP. Of course, this negative would hurt many other important sectors in the U.S. Market. The risk is that the revenue projections from reforming tax deferral are large and populist politics are against the companies. On the flipside, raising taxes in a recession is controversial and corporations could threaten to relocate headquarters outside the US, which would bode poorly for employment. In Obamas campaign he said it was his desire to broaden the corporate tax base and eliminate special preferences. He specifically mentioned reforming tax deferral to end the incentive for companies to ship jobs overseas. The one-liner is his budget proposal is very vague, implying little detail and possibly significant future debate. The projections go from $15Bn to $20Bn to $25Bn and then increase by $1Bn/year. These broad estimates have the appearance of placeholders, put in to meet the deadline with details to be determined later. Two possible ex