金融英语09.pptVIP

Figure 9.7 Share Price and 50-Day Moving Average for Apple Computer ※ The line in black represents the daily share prices, which can be viewed as the shortest-term moving average, and the line in pink represents the 50-day moving average ※ In this case, both signals provide good forecast about the future movement although they cannot identify the perfect selling and purchasing time points Bearish signal Bullish signal Perfect selling point Perfect purchasing point Breadth The extent to which movements in a broad index are reflected widely in movements of individual stocks Spread between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks If the advances outnumber declines by a wide margin, then the market is viewed as being stronger because the upward rally is widespread (see next slide) Relative strength Defined as the ratio of prices of an individual stock divided by the level of an industry A rising (declining) ratio implies security has outperformed (underperfomed) the particular industry average If relative outperforming strength can persist over time, then this would be a signal to buy Some Technical Analysis Method Table 9.2 Breadth ※ The direction of the cumulated breadth series is used to discern market trends ※ When the cumulative breadth increases (decreases), the market is viewed as being stronger (weaker) because the upward (downward) rally is more widespread ※ Analysts might use a moving average of cumulative breadth to gauge market trends Sentiment Indicators Trin Statistics: The trin ratio above 1.0 are considered bearish because the falling stocks would have higher average volume than the advancing stocks, indicating net selling pressure Note carefully that since for every seller, there must be a buyer, the trin ratio above 1.0 also indicates that there is more buying activity in declining stocks Sentiment Indicators Confidence index Ratio of the average yield on 10 top-rated corporate bonds divided by the average yield on 10 inter