Chaos in Easter sland Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison混沌在复活岛生态–麦迪逊威斯康星大学.ppt

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Chaos in Easter sland Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison混沌在复活岛生态–麦迪逊威斯康星大学.ppt

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Chaos in Easter sland Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison混沌在复活岛生态–麦迪逊威斯康星大学

References / lectures/easter.ppt (this talk) /chaostsa/ (my chaos book) sprott@ (contact me) * Workshop on Self-Organization * Entire presentation available on WWW * Workshop on Self-Organization * Chaos in EasterIsland Ecology J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin – Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar in Madison, WI on January 25, 2011 Easter Island Chilean palm (Jubaea chilensis) Easter Island History 400-1200 AD? First inhabitants arrive from Polynesia 1722 Jacob Roggevee (Dutch) visited Population: ~3000 1770’s Next foreign visitors 1860’s Peruvian slave traders Catholic missionaries arrive Population: 110 1888 Annexed by Chilie 2010 Popular tourist destination Population: 4888 Things should be explained as simply as possible, but not more simply. ?Albert Einstein All models are wrong; some models are useful. ?George E. P. Box Linear Model P is the population (number of people) γ is the growth rate (birth rate – death rate) Linear Model γ = +1 γ = ?1 Logistic Model Attractor Repellor γ = +1 Lotka-Volterra Model P T Three equilibria: Coexisting equilibrium η = 4.8 γ = 2.5 Brander-Taylor Model η = 4.8 γ = 2.5 Brander-Taylor Model Point Attractor Basener-Ross Model P T Three equilibria: η = 25 γ = 4.4 Basener-Ross Model η = 0.8 γ = 0.6 Basener-Ross Model Requires γ = 2η ? 1 Structurally unstable Poincaré-Bendixson Theorem In a 2-dimensional dynamical system (i.e. P,T), there are only 4 possible dynamics: Attract to an equilibrium Cycle periodically Attract to a periodic cycle Increase without bound Trajectories in state space cannot intersect Invasive Species Model Four equilibria: P = R = 0 R = 0 P = 0 coexistence ηP = 0.47 γP = 0.1 ηR = 0.7 γR = 0.3 Chaos Return map Fractal γP = 0.1 γR = 0.3 ηR = 0.7 Bifurcation diagram Lyapunov exponent Period doubling γP = 0.1 γR = 0.3 ηR = 0.7 Hopf bifurcation Crisis Overconsumption Reduce harvesting Eradicate the rats Conclusions Simple models can produce complex and