Reserve Uncertainty Truth or Decepton储备的不确定性的真理或欺骗.pptVIP

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Reserve Uncertainty Truth or Decepton储备的不确定性的真理或欺骗.ppt

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Reserve Uncertainty Truth or Decepton储备的不确定性的真理或欺骗

Reserve Uncertainty:Truth or Deception Pat Teufel, KPMG Chap Cook, MBA Inc. Richard Marcks, Connecticut Ins. Dept. David Hartmann, Chubb Corp. CAS Boston, November 11, 2002 Reserve Uncertainty In my opinion, the amounts carried Make a reasonable provision for all unpaid loss and loss expense obligations…… Reserve Uncertainty ASOP 36 states that a reserve makes a reasonable provision if it is within the actuary’s range of reasonable reserve estimates Reserve Uncertainty This standard defines the range of reasonable estimates as a range of estimates that could be produced by appropriate actuarial methods or alternative sets of assumptions that the actuary judges to be reasonable Reserve Uncertainty Note that the range of reasonable estimates is narrower, perhaps considerably, than the range of possible outcomes of the ultimate settlement value of the reserve. Way understated-- Reserve Uncertainty … when a reasonable fluctuation in reserve can have a material effect on surplus, the actuary may choose to discuss this in the opinion. This situation may arise from… the relationship of the range of reasonable estimates to surplus, or others. Reserve Uncertainty ASOP 36 requires this disclosure when the actuary reasonably believes that there are significant risks and uncertainties that could result in material adverse deviation. Reserve Uncertainty In considering the intended use of this opinion for the purpose of solvency monitoring… I believe that x% of surplus and/or y% of Loss and LAE Reserves would be material for this company. Reserve Uncertainty The NAIC is proposing new instruction for the opinion effective for 2004 statements: Range or point estimate in the report Other changes Reserve Uncertainty Reasonable range of estimates Variance range that would be a material adverse deviation Probable range or confidence interval Reserve Uncertainty Factors affecting the range of reasonable estimates: Choice of reasonable methods or models Selection of reasona