seasonal volume forecasts using ensemble streamflow prediction节性量预测采用径流预测合奏.pptVIP

Topics for Presentation ESP and Water Supply Forecast Overview Recap of WY 2007 Water Supply and ESP Forecasts 2008 Volumetric Streamflow Outlook ESP Water Supply Forecasts ESP with CPC precipitation and temperature shifts applied ESP weighting La Nina years only NWRFC Forecasting Models Statistical Water Supply Seasonal Volumetric Forecasts Regression techniques 168 forecast locations Coordinated forecasts with NRCS, BOR, COE, and BCHydro NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Short, Medium, and Longterm capabilities Generates output in deterministic AND probabilistic (ESP) formats Variable Outputs for ESP Statistical Water Suppy NWS River Forecast System Model Components (simplified) NWS River Forecast System Water Year 2007 Recap Comparison of ESP and Water Supply Forecast volumes against observed volume LUCI1 Lucky Peak Reservoir Unregulated Inflow PLDI1 Palisades Reservoir Unregulated Inflow 2007 WS Forecast Recap 2007 WS Forecast Recap Spring Outlook - 2008 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Driven by: Antecedent Snow/Soil Moisture 10 day Precip and Temp Forecast Updated weekly Capability of including climate forecasts/signals With CPC temperature and precipitation shifts Post-processing using La Nina year weighting Not included in current published versions Volume Forecasts Available at  Volume Forecasts Available at  ESP Year Weighting ESP Post Processing: Year Weighting Weighted all 0 average Jul-Sep SOI as 1.0; else 0.0 Reduces sample size of ESP from 45 to 23 years Comparison of ESP 2008 with ESP Climate Adjusted Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center Combined Index: Observed Precip Observed Snow Observed Runoff Future Precip Snow Model Soil Moisture/Runoff Consumptive Use River Routing Reservoir Regulation Flow and Stage Forecasts Rain Plus Snow Melt Time Flow Day 10 Current time Observed Forecast