Optimal Currency Areas最优货币区.pptVIP

Optimal Currency Areas Theory and Evidence for an African Single Currency Objectives of Presentation The Theoretical Backdrop The African Backdrop Single currency a political aim since 1963 when the Organisation for African Unity was founded Renewed emphasis since the Abuja Treaty in 1994 Tito Mboweni, Governor of the South African Central Bank, now indicates 2021 as the target date for monetary integration Poor intra African trade levels – just 10% of total African trade African Data Problems Relatively large area to assess 53 countries compared to 15 originally in EU Mostly constituent of developing nations More straightforward economic indicators only reliably available since the 1980’s Certain countries have no economic data More complex financial data still missing for many countries The Way Forward Objective An assessment of regional economic communities to remove duplication Investigation into the possible trade effects of monetary integration in Africa Solution An ‘OCA Index’ to predict convergence of average bilateral exchange rates within groups A Gravity Model of intra-African trade Regional Economic Communities Gravity Model Rationale:Things that effect trade Common colonial history Common nationality Shared language Geographical distance Geographical size Economic Size Population Island Status Landlocked Status Membership in Customs Unions Membership in economic communities Common currency The Scary Bit Or, Gravity Model Estimation The estimating equation: Gravity Analysis: Data requirements and sources Estimates of the Currency Union Effect on Intra-African Trade Time Series Data ProblemShort time scale Conclusions In general, the currency union effect on intra-African trade is positive and significant This was robust to a number of sensitivity tests The point estimate is of a similar magnitude to comparable studies There remains the need for further investigation Epilogue: The Search for Data The availability of data has been instrumenta