基于投入产出优化模型的中国行业实际减排潜力研究-IIOA!.DOC

China’s Industry Potential for Carbon Emission Reduction based on Optimal Input-Output model* FU, Xue, Dr. Hubacek, Klaus, Prof. Meng, Bo, Dr. Feng, Kuishuang, Dr. Abstract With the high speed development of economy over 30 years, China has experience energy development and use grow, thus discharged carbon dioxide as the world’s largest emitter and established a binding target that, in 2020 China’s carbon dioxide emissions per GDP will decrease to 40% -45% . This research works out the actual potential of industry structure adjustment from the perspective of China’s industry carbon emission reduction. It means the change in the ratio of the output of a specific industry to that of the whole economy, under the three kinds of scenarios on constraints of carbon emission reduction. First, Energy-Carbon-Emission-Economy Input-Output (ECEIO) table is designed and compile. Second, an optimal input-output model is established which combine the environment system with economy system considering international trade. Third, this model is applied to 2005 China’s ECEIO table with 44 industries, and to 2007 China’s ECEIO table with 15 industries and to 2007 Shanghai’s ECEIO table. It finds that it is necessary to increase the output of high-tech industries and services with a low coefficient of small amount of carbon emission, for examples, mechanism, electricity manufacture, and real estate, finance and other service. Moreover, industry adjustment is sensitive to the energy structure, the speed of economy growth and carbon emission constraints. If the ratio of renewable energy for the change of structure of energy is considered to be increased; the increase range of industry adjustment will rise with the increase in reduction of carbon emission and decline in the speed of economy growth. In detail, small amount of heavy industry with high carbon emission coefficients should be decrease its ratio of output to the whole economy. The degree of decline in ratio of its output to th