Temporal Investment on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation时间投资在适应与减缓气候变化.docxVIP

Temporal Investment in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Weiwei Wang and Bruce A. McCarl Abstract Increasingly there appears to be recognition the need to simultaneously implement adaptation and mitigation since ambitious mitigation action aiming at reducing future climate change will not prevent much climate change before mid-century. However, the optimal combination between planned adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change over time is still an open question. Literature base is rather small, yet very diverse and inconsistent in conclusions. In this paper, we do an exploration of the temporal optimal investment mix between adaptation and mitigation and their relative contributions to climate change damage reduction. By proposing a conceptual framework that integrates both strategies and developing a more complete integrated assessment model with persistent adaptation plus unadaptable damages and investment competition, the temporal investment allocation between adaptation and mitigation is identified. Results suggest that adaptation is a powerful damage reduction means in the first 150 years while mitigation dominates from thereon. While mitigation tackles the long run cause of climate change, adaptation is an economically effective complement to mitigation and should be an important current policy option. We also find that optimal policy recommended by the model changes markedly with key uncertain parameters in climate sensitivity and damage function. More rapidly mitigation effort is called for with higher level of damages given temperature increase. Introduction Climate change has gained increased attention as scientific evidence has accumulated on changes and their impacts. Estimates are that the world economy will suffer substantial future climate change induced damages, with estimated mean global GDP losses of 1.5 to 3.5% (IPCC, 2007a). Two major policy approaches are possible Adaptation by adjusting productive activities to the