基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法.PDFVIP

Progress 研究进展 基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法 1 1 1 2 2 李宇梅 狄靖月 许凤雯 张国平 王志 （1 国家气象中心，中国气象局，北京100081；2 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京100081） 摘要：降水是引发滑坡、崩塌、泥石流的主要诱因。通过全国地质灾害易发程度区划研究，初步将全国划分为西北、东 北、青藏高原、黄土高原、秦岭大巴山区、华北、云贵高原、中南和东南地区共9大预警分区。应用1950—2014年地质 灾害历史灾情数据，选取灾害当天降水量作为建模因子，对其进行正态化处理后对地质灾害发生概率密度进行多项式、 傅里叶和高斯拟合，发现高斯拟合方法最优，选取高斯拟合方法分区建立地质灾害概率预报方程，并结合业务地质灾害 风险预警等级划分，制定地质灾害风险预警当日临界雨量阈值指标，应用2015年4—10月172个地质灾害样本以及江西 兴国和于都2015年5月17—21日降水诱发地质灾害过程对当日临界雨量指标进行预报检验，结果表明当日临界雨量指标 判别简单可行，判定效果较好，具有实际应用价值。 关键词：当日临界雨量，地质灾害，高斯拟合，风险区划，个例检验 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.03.007 A Risk Warning Method Based on the Intraday Critical Precipitation for National Geological Disaster 1 1 1 2 2 Li Yumei , Di Jingyue , Xu Fengwen , Zhang Guoping , Wang Zhi (1 National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081) Abstract: Landslides, debris-flows and collapses are caused by heavy precipitation frequently. A zonation for national geological disaster was carried out, and the 9 regions were divided so called as: the Northwestern China, Northeastern China, Tibetan Plateau, Loess Plateau, Qinba Mountain, Northern China, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Central and South China and Southeastern China. The critically intraday precipitation for geological disaster in China was investigated based on the information of geological disasters in 1950-2014. Based on the Gaussian fitting method, the probability forecast model was adopted to describe probabilistic relation between precipitation and geological disaster. The intraday critical precipitation and