本科毕业论文外文翻译-外文翻译.docVIP

本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译 项目管理分析 院（系、部）名 称 ： 商务管理系 专 业 名 称： 财务会计教育（师范类） 学 生 姓 名： 学 生 学 号： 指 导 教 师： 2013 年01月05日 河北科技师范学院教务处制 Project Risk Analysis Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 About this compendium This course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics: ? Risk identification ? Risk structuring ? Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model ? Risk follows up We will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. 1.2 Definitions Aleatory uncertainty Variation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty Lack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. Dependency The relation between the sequences of the activities in a project. Observable quantity A quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the physical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. Parameter We use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probabilitystatement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter i