泾河流域气温时序变异特点识别.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2017, 6(1), 33-41 Published Online February 2017 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2017.61005 Detecting Temporal Variations of Temperature Characteristics in Jinghe Watershed Yongsheng Zhang1,2, Xi Chen1,2*, Man Gao1,2, Zhicai Zhang1,2, Qinbo Cheng1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing Jiangsu st th th Received: Jan. 21 , 2017; accepted: Feb. 7 , 2017; published: Feb. 10 , 2017 Abstract Temporal variation of temperature not only presents overall rising trend, but also presents differences both the rising trend and range in different period. Variations characteristics of mean, variance and linear trend term changes in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures of four basic meteorological stations in the Jinghe Watershed were detected using change-point test method based on Schwarz information cri- terion. The research results indicate that the annual maximum, minimum and average temperatures in every meteorological station show increasing trends, the mutation of temperature occurred mainly in the mid-1990s and the mutation type present some differences before and after the change. Compared with Mann-Kendall method, the proposed method that based on Schwarz information criterion not only can test the mutation of the time, but also can quantitatively describe the temperature variation characteristics. Keywords Schwarz Information Criterion, Mann-Kendall Method, Temperature, Abrupt Change Test 泾河流域气温时序变异特征识别 1,2 1,2* 1,2 1,2 1,2 张永生 ，陈 喜 ，高 满 ，张志才 ，程勤波 1河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏 南京 2河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏 南京 收稿日期：2017年1月21 日；录用日期：2017年2月7 日；发布日期：2017年2月10 日 摘 要 气温变异不仅呈现时序上总体升高的趋势性，而且呈现出不同时段内升高趋势及变化幅