担保链风险传染运行机理研究基于天煜建设担保链案例.docxVIP

担保链风险传染运行机理的研究——基于天煜建设担保链案例 摘 要:浙江民营企业居多，融资渠道较少，对银行贷款、民间融资依存度高，互保、联保贷款曾被认为是企业融资的创新之举，在保持银行一定的信贷风险水平下，解决了民营企业的融资难问题，因此被广泛运用于江浙一带。但自从2008年绍兴的华联三鑫资金担保链危机爆发，温州、嘉兴、湖州、金华、杭州相继发生担保链危机。2012年“天煜建设”爆发的担保链危机更是促使杭州600家陷入担保链危机的企业联名上书向政府求援。而从2013年开始的一年多内，曾被当地企业家说“90%以上企业存在担保链”的杭州萧山区更是大量出险，担保链风险逐渐暴露。 在所有浙江担保链案例中，我们不乏看到很多部分经营陷入破产危机的风险传染给其他经营良好的企业。担保链债务危机引发的企业信用风险扩散，殃及相关优质企业，直接带来银行不良贷款上升的潜在隐忧，造成了区域经济金融的不稳定，浙江担保链风险传染机制运行机理的研究迫在眉睫。 本文先对担保链风险传染运行过程及关键节点进行理论分析，再结合天煜建设担保链案例进行实务阐述，得出如下结论：1）块状经济是浙江易形成担保链的特色动因，高负债经营是担保链风险易传染的条件之一；2）发生担保链风险传染并非易事，只有在满足四个条件的情况下才会出现。即，风险因子的刺激、风险屏障的突破、风险传染载体的存在以及催化效应的作用；3）处于不同层级的担保链企业其应对风险的措施不同；4）同一层级不同企业在担保链风险传染过程中的作用不同，中心企业加快了传染的速度、广度和深度。因此本文在此基础上提出了相应的保障措施，为担保链的良性发展提供一点建议，对陷入担保链危机的企业提供相关应急措施，有助于促进区域经济的平稳发展。 关键词：担保链风险，传染，运行，关键节点，保障措施  Research on operation mechanism OF Guarantee Chain Risk INFECTION——BASED ON Tianyu Construction guarantee chain case ABSTRACT: The majority of the enterprises in Zhejiang are private enterprises—who have less sources of finance. They tend to rely more on bank loans and private financing. Thus, mutual insurance and guaranteed loans which maintain a certain level of credit risk in the bank and solve the problem of financing of private enterprises, were considered to be innovations in corporate finance and greatly supported by the government in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces. But since the guarantee chain crisis in Shaoxing in year 2008, the same crisis respectively happened in Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Jinhua, Hangzhou. What was more, in 2012, the breakout of Tianyu Construction guarantee chain crisis affected about 600 firms in Hangzhou leading them to sign a joint letter to the government for help. In addition, From the beginning of 2013, the Hangzhou Xiaoshan District witnessed a lot of guarantee chain crisis, thus, this financial guarantees chain risk gradually came to light. In all cases in Zhejiang guarantee chain, we can always see the problem that the risk of bankruptcy spread to other well-run business. Secured debt cri