《管理学原理》英语教学课件4-foundations of decision making.pptVIP

郭志文 2001 Copyright 郭志文 2001 Copyright CHAPTER 4 Foundations of Decision Making * Learning Objectives Describe the decision-making process Analyze the rational decision-making model Explain the limits of rationality Learn how certainty, risk, and uncertainty relate to decision making Discuss the bounded-rational decision maker * Learning Objectives Identify the two types of decision problems and the two decisions that solve them Learn how heuristics affect decision making Identify four decision-making styles Weigh the pros and cons of group decisions Learn three ways to improve group decision making * The Decision-Making Process Identification of a Problem Identification of Decision Criteria Allocation of Weights to Criteria Price Interior Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance Price Interior Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance 10 8 6 4 2 I need to buy a new car. * Development of Alternatives Analysis of Alternatives Ford Jeep Mazda Dodge Audi Isuzu Chevy Selection of an Alternative Implementation of the Alternative Appraisal of Decision Results Price Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance The Dodge is the best. Toyota Chevy Isuzu Audi Dodge Mazda Jeep Ford Toyota * Problem Clarity Single Goal Known Options Clear Preferences Constant Preferences No Constraints Maximum Payoff Assumptions of Rational Decision Making * A Model of Bounded Rationality Ascertain the Need for a Decision Simplify the Problem Set “Satisfying” Criteria Identify a Limited Set of Alternatives Compare Alternatives Against Criteria Expand Search for Alternatives Select the First “Good Enough” Choice A “Satisficing” Alternative Exists Yes No * Escalation of Commitment Representative Heuristic Availability Heuristic Common Errorsin Decision Making * How Do Problems Differ? Well- Structured Programmed Decisions Poorly Structured Non-programmed Decisions * Making Programmed Decisions Sequential Procedures Specific Rules Guiding Policies * Integrating Decision Ma