人民币均衡汇率的实证研究论文.docVIP

PAGE 人民币均衡汇率的实证研究 RMB equilibrium exchange rate of empirical research 内容摘要：自20世纪70年代末以来，我国实施改革开放的同时，伴随着高速的经济增长、高涨的投资率、快速的技术进步，汇率作为一个基本的经济变量，逐渐确立了在经济生活中的中心地位。人民币均衡汇率到底应是多少?近年来这个问题吸引了国内外学者的广泛关注,也积累了大量的对人民币均衡汇率研究的成果，人民币均衡汇率的测算方法也就成为了主要的研究方向，而与其直接相关的内容主要涉及到人民币均衡汇率的定义、影响因素和测算方法,因为人民币均衡汇率的定义直接涉及测算的范围问题,影响因素涉及测算中影响因素选择,而测算方法涉及的是模型的使用,本文拟从这三个核心问题出发,对其进行综述,为进一步研究提供基础，本文利用国家统计数据库的相关数据，并对固定名义汇率进行插值获得浮动的均衡汇率，然后利用数据进行多元线性回归拟合。最后，通过模型对2007，2008，2009的数据计算，得到此三年的均衡汇率，并与国家政策下的名义汇率比较，分析国家政策，预测今年名义汇率走向。 关键词：均衡汇率；插值；多元线性回归拟合 Abstract:Here since the 1970s, our country at the end of reform and opening-up, accompanied by rapid economic growth, rising and rapid progress of technology and the exchange rate as a fundamental economic variables, and gradually established in the economy in the centre.What should be RMB equilibrium exchange rate? In recent years, the problem attracting attention of scholars both at home and abroad, and accumulated the massive equilibrium exchange rate of RMB research achievements of RMB equilibrium exchange rate, the calculation methods and becomes the main research direction, and the main content of the directly related to RMB equilibrium exchange rate involves the definition, and the factors affecting the measurement method, because the definition of RMB equilibrium exchange rate is directly related to the scope of measure, factors affecting factors involved in measurement, calculation methods selection is related to the use of the model, this paper from the three core issues of its review provided basis for further research, by using the relevant data of national statistical data, and the fixed nominal exchange rate on the equilibrium exchange rate fluctuation interpolation obtained, and then use multiple linear regression data fitting.Finally, through the model for calculating 2007,2008,2009 data, the three years of real exchange rate and the national policy of the nominal exchange rate, national policy, the nominal exchange rate this year. key word: Qu