4G时代流量爆发性增长实证分析.docVIP

4G时代流量爆发性增长实证分析 　　摘要： 本文采用AR模型对我国电信运营商的移动流量业务随时间的变化进行了分析和预测。利用eviews3.0进行回归预测，结果显示，移动流量在短期时间内还会呈现增长态势；流量与收入松藕性增长关系成为摆在电信运营商面前的巨大挑战，同时流量的剧增也为电信运营商带来了巨大的网络压力，靠以往低廉的流量资费已经无法支撑电信运营商的收入增长。 　　Abstract： In this paper， the AR model is used to analyze and forecast the change of the mobile data traffic with the time in Chinese telecom operators. As eviews3.0 regression predicted， the results show that the data mobile traffic in a short period of time will grow in a low speed. The increasing loose lotus relationship between data traffic and revenue is a great challenge posed in front of the telecom op