房地产泡沫预警跟防范 正文.docVIP

摘 要 自1998年开始，我国住房制度改革逐步深入，特别是随着福利化分房的结束，住房商品化的开始，房地产业进入了持续快速发展的新时期。与此同时，房地产价格也连续快速攀升。近年来关于我国房地产泡沫问题的争论不绝于耳，但是一直未有定论。本论文在收集整理大量有关房地产泡沫资料的基础上，通过对房地产泡沫的研究认定了我国局部地区出现房地产泡沫的事实，揭示了全国性房地产泡沫的风险性及其危害，针对我国房地产泡沫风险因素提出了相应的预警及防范对策。 关键词：房地产泡沫； 预警机制； 防范 ABSTRACT Since 1998, the housing system reform has been gradually deepening in China, especially with the end of welfare housing distribution and the beginning of the commercialization of lodgings, the real estate industry has entered a new period of sustained and rapid development. At the same time, the real estate price is continuously rising fast. In the recent years, the endless debate on the Chinas real estate bubble has not been decided. This paper holds the fact that the exist of the real estate bubble in some areas, reveals the risk of the national estate bubble and it’s danger and puts forward the corresponding early warning and preventive measures based on the research and data collecting relating to the real estate bubble. Key words：Real estate bubble; early warning mechanism; prevention 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048832 第一章 前言 PAGEREF _Toc292048832 \h 6 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048833 第二章 房地产泡沫概述 PAGEREF _Toc292048833 \h 7 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048834 2.1房地产泡沫的定义和理解 PAGEREF _Toc292048834 \h 7 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048835 2.2房地产泡沫的特征与表现形式 PAGEREF _Toc292048835 \h 7 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048836 2.3房地产泡沫的判定 PAGEREF _Toc292048836 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048837 2.3.1检验房地产投资收益率 PAGEREF _Toc292048837 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048838 2.3.2检验房地产的转手率或成交额 PAGEREF _Toc292048838 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048839 2.3.3估算房地产的理论价格 PAGEREF _Toc292048839 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048840 2.3.4分析房地产投资 PAGEREF _Toc292048840 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048841 2.3.5监测开发商的施工进度 PAGEREF _Toc292048841 \h 9 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048842 第三章 中国房地产泡沫的形成原因分析 PAGEREF _Toc292048842 \h 9 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048843 3.1土地投机 PAGEREF _Toc292048843 \h 9 HYPERLINK \l _Toc292048844 3.2政府失败 PAGEREF _Toc292048844 \h 10 HYPERLINK