中国股行业轮动投资时钟探究作者边柞而.PDFVIP

中国股市行业轮动投资时钟探究 中国股市行业轮动投资时钟探究 作者：边柞而 摘要 2004 年，美林证券发表了著名的研究报告《The Investment Clock》，它提出了投资时钟的概 念。也即根据经济增长趋势和通货膨胀趋势，将经济周期划分为四个阶段：复苏，过热， 滞胀和衰退，然后在不同的阶段分别采取不同的投资策略，配置不同的资产和行业。 牵引于中国股市,充分把握经济周期以及不同行业的轮动效应，根据市场行情的发展，灵活 的将投资热点从一个行业转为另一个行业，或者据此优化股票资产的配置，都对指导证券 投资实践有着非常重要的意义。 本文通过经济增长与通货膨胀变量建模,结合中国股市历史数据进行检验,得出中国股市各 个行业轮动与经济周期的相关性。创立了一种适合中国股市行业轮动探究的方法。 关键词： 股市 行业轮动 投资时钟 经济周期 中国股市行业轮动投资时钟探究 A RESEARCH ON SECTORS INVESTMENT CLOCK OF CHINA’S STOCK MARKET ABSTRACT In 2004, Merrill Lynch published a famous study The Investment Clock, which put forward the concept of investment clock. That is according to the economic growth trends and inflation trends. The economic cycle is divided into four phases: recovery, overheat, stagflation and reflation, and then were taken at different stages of different investment strategies, asset and configuration of different industries. Traction in the Chinese stock market, we can take more flexible investment stratigies through the judgment of China’s economic cycle. Compare with passitive investment stratigies, we pursuant to optimize the allocation of securities sectors. It will be a significance guidance for investment practice. Bases on my rearch of economic growth and inflation variables modeling and hypothesis test, we get a result that most sectors in Chinas stock market have strong regularity correlation with the economic cycle. And it’s an effective method for research on Chinese stock market sectors investment clock. Key words: STOCK MARKET, SECTOR FUND, INVESTMENT CLOCK, ECONOMIC CYCLE 中国股市行业轮动投资时钟探究 第